Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 3 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 7 July 2026 at 08:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 5th strongest of the 126 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 9 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 1:27AM EDT until July 7 at 4:30AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 1,223,163 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 7, 2026 · score 52 · 0.1 km
- May 27, 2026 · score 52 · 6.1 km
- August 8, 2026 · score 52 · 8.3 km
How we know
7 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 52 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 52 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.91/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.7755, -77.6735 |
| Nearest City | Linton Hall (9 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 1.2M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-07T05:27:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Flash Flood Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.44bc6fa68cc9043df5795b40f55f7382 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-07T05:27:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-07T08:02:34.018Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Prince William, VA; City of Manassas, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA; Fauquier, VA |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 1:27AM EDT until July 7 at 4:30AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-07T04:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.44bc6fa68cc9043df5795b40f55f7382f47d0595.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0e23bb8ba06512dbcf3b57dfdecea6d1fb0f37ed.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | F |
| Iem City | 1 NW Bethel |
| Iem County | Fauquier |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Local law enforcement reports at least a foot of flowing water across the roadway on US-17 south along Cedar Run near Little Zion Baptist Church. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_F_38.740_-77.560_1783395780000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783395780000,"latitude":38.74,"longitude":-77.56},{"id":"iem_F_38.820_-77.530_1783401660000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783401660000,"latitude":38.82,"longitude":-77.53},{"id":"iem_F_38.700_-77.530_1783402740000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783402740000,"latitude":38.7,"longitude":-77.53},{"id":"iem_D_38.730_-77.560_1783393440000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783393440000,"latitude":38.73,"longitude":-77.56},{"id":"iem_D_38.660_-77.340_1783395180000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783395180000,"latitude":38.66,"longitude":-77.34},{"id":"iem_F_38.770_-77.820_1783401240000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783401240000,"latitude":38.77,"longitude":-77.82}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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